Wednesday, September 20, 2023

2023 Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly WEIRDNESS - explanation(s) sought, comments welcome

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The Setup

Often lately I find myself playing around on my laptop with the most excellent global visualization tool called Earth at  https://earth.nullschool.net.  (Here's an excellent talk on how this came to be by its author, Cameron Beccario (@cambecc):  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QXNODLWhSbw).  I usually am perfecting how to tell if a hurricane is forming or, especially in 2023, looking at the off the charts sea surface temperature anomaly, or SSTA.  This is the variation of the surface temperature from the mean for that location, and Earth:Nullschool has it color coded: from just under -10° C (white)  to just over 10° C (off-white), with black for no anomaly, i.e., the sea surface is at the expected or mean temperature.  (At least this is how I understand it; I welcome correction if needed). 



Enter 'The Blob'

So then I hear about the Blob, or Cold Blob, a patch of water off of Greenland that is always, always, always colder than the surrounding ocean.  Always.  Except the video interview that introduces me to this is from 2015 (do a search for 'cold blob Atlantic' videos, most are from 2015-2018), and when I go to look for this on my visualization, it isn't there. 


Time Machine

I click on the Date icon (right next to the 'Now' button) and go back a few years.  There is is, a patch of royal blue near Greenland.  Go back as far as I can, still seeing it.  But clicking is laborious, I want to make a movie....


TIL

...& after a few days of learning how to operate Google Chrome headless to take screenshots, how ffmpeg makes videos from images (& how much it heats up my poor laptop)... 


WTF

...I see something really really odd in the video, a change as of 2023, & I want an explanation.


TIL take 2

...so since the video is glitchy and was hard on my laptop to make I learn the python command to run a baby server so I can use HTML5 & Tim Whittaker's HaniS to point at a folder of images and animate them, & then I learn the ImageMagick commands to batch convert the 3000+ png images to jpg, resize them, & overlay the date so we know what's when...


VIDEO: CAN ANYONE EXPLAIN WHY 2023 LOOKS SO DIFFERENT?  PLEASE.

Basically, the blob is there & things look pretty regular until around 2020, when the pattern gets really... granular, or chaotic... & then in 2023...


Please watch.  Comments most enthusiastically welcome.  Thank you.




A higher quality version is on my YouTube channel, here.

Be seeing you.

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